Warrant’s price action once again proved to be a predictor of the likelihood of a privatization success. In January shortly after the proposed privatization of MBF Holdings Bhd, the price of MBFHLDG-WA continued to trade above the offer price of 5 sen. Please refer to thearticle " MBFHLDG-WA Price Reaction Suggests Potential Hiccup in Privatization Bid".
On 27th April 2010, MBf Holdings Bhd announced that its group chief executive officer Tan Sri Ninian Mogan Lourdenadin’s bid to take the company private fell through, after two-thirds of its minority shareholders rejected his buyout offer at the EGM yesterday.
The failed privatization sent MBFHLDG-WA soaring to above 10 sen from 7 sen this morning, repeating the performance of warrants prices surging of previous failed general offers like Zecon and E & O Properties (the first attempt).
So the next time a warrant trades above its offer price after a takeover offer, history suggests that the offer will face strong resistance and usually does not go through at least in the first attempt.